Archive: 12 agosto 2011

Pubblicato il 12 agosto 2011 by Pier Luca Santoro

Tutti i Buchi del Colosseo

The Tele­graph uti­lizza la meta­fora, nean­che troppo sot­tile, dei buchi del Colos­seo per rea­liz­zare un’infografica inte­rat­tiva che sin­te­tizza in 15 punti la cata­strofe eco­no­mica — finan­zia­ria dell’Italia:

  • Mor­gan Stan­ley esti­ma­tes net issuance should total 35 bil­lion euros per year in 2012–2013, less than expect annual cou­pon pay­ments of around €45 bil­lion per year
  • A total of €157 bil­lion in Ita­lian govern­ment paper will fall due by the end of the year. Redemp­tions will peak in Sep­tem­ber, when €46 bil­lion of BTP CTX bonds mature
  • Italy has rai­sed €277.4 bil­lion euros in debt so far in 2011, or 65.3% of its full-year tar­get, the Trea­sury said — sug­ge­sting fur­ther issuance of €147.4 bil­lion, accor­ding to Reu­ters calculations
  • Italy’s public debt stood at €1,890 bil­lion at the end of April, accor­ding to Bank of Italy figu­res. The public debt figure inclu­des postal savings
  • Ita­lian govern­ment bonds and short-term bills tota­led €1,583 bil­lion at the end of June accor­ding to Ita­lian Trea­sury data. Their ave­rage term was 7.09 years
  • A one per­cen­tage point increase in Italy’s debt yields adds about €3 bil­lion euros to inte­rest pay­ments in the first year, and twice that in the second, the Bank of Italy has said
  • Italy fore­cast in April that 2011 debt ser­vi­cing costs would total 4.8% of GDP, or about €77 billion
  • The Inter­na­tio­nal Mone­tary Fund esti­ma­ted in April that 47% of Ita­lian 2010 govern­ment debt was held abroad. Mor­gan Stan­ley last week esti­ma­ted foreign hol­dings at 44%
  • Banks domi­ci­led in Italy held €192 bil­lion in Ita­lian govern­ment secu­ri­ties at the end of May, Bank of Italy data sho­wed last month. In the first quar­ter of 2011 they also held €589 bil­lion euros in govern­ment secu­ri­ties on behalf of their clients
  • Euro­pean Ban­king Autho­rity data sho­wed in July that Italy’s five len­ding retail banks had a net direct expo­sure to Ita­lian sove­reign debt of €159 bil­lion. Intesa San­paolo is the most expo­sed with €57.6 bil­lion, fol­lo­wed by Uni­Cre­dit with €47.5 billion
  • Mor­gan Stan­ley said dome­stic banks and insu­rance com­pa­nies could quite easily buy net €60 bil­lion a year in Ita­lian govern­ment debt for the next few years
  • JP Mor­gan ana­ly­sis said Ita­lian banks will have to refi­nance €53 bil­lion of matu­ring bonds in who­le­sale mar­kets next year
  • The €600 bil­lion Ita­lian pen­sion fund and insu­rance indu­stry has increa­sed its hol­dings of dome­stic govern­ment bonds by 10% in the last three years to 32% of assets, accor­ding to JP Morgan
  • Ana­lysts esti­mate that an increase in the ave­rage cost of Ita­lian public debt dri­ves a simi­lar rise in the cost of banks’ bond issues
  • JP Mor­gan and Mor­gan Stan­ley ana­lysts esti­mate Ita­lian banks’ hol­dings of govern­ment bonds at around 6% of their assets — a higher figure than 5% for Spa­nish banks and second only within the euro zone to Greek banks’ 10%

- Clicca per Acce­dere alla Ver­sione Interattiva -

 Inte­res­sante anche l’analisi di Reu­ters che sug­ge­ri­sce come i pro­blemi del nostro paese siano più legati alla man­cata cre­scita che al con­trollo del debito, ele­mento sul quale si è sem­pre invece con­cen­trato l’attuale Mini­stro dell’Economia.

Tanto det­ta­gliato quanto non con­ven­zio­nale, e dun­que ancora più inte­res­sante, il rap­porto su quanto avviene oltreoceano.

Diceva John Ken­neth Gal­braith che «la sola fun­zione delle pre­vi­sioni in campo eco­no­mico è quella di ren­dere per­sino l’astrologia un po’ più rispet­ta­bile», affer­ma­zione che alla luce dei fatti appare tanto pun­gente quanto azzeccata.

Pubblicato il 12 agosto 2011 by Pier Luca Santoro

Botta & Risposta

Nel suo inter­vento al par­la­mento, il pre­mier con­ser­va­tore inglese, David Came­ron, illu­strando le deci­sioni prese per inter­rom­pere la serie di rivolte che hanno inve­stito molte città del Regno Unito, ha ven­ti­lato l’ipotesi di sospen­sione dei social net­work, iden­ti­fi­cati come stru­mento di rivolta, in caso di disordini.

Forse anche a causa dello scon­tro in atto tra Governo e forze dell’ordine bri­tan­ni­che, gli risponde Peter Fahy, Capo della Poli­zia di Man­che­ster, che social media e social net­work sono stati di grande aiuto alla polizia.

Botta e risposta.