The Telegraph utilizza la metafora, neanche troppo sottile, dei buchi del Colosseo per realizzare un’infografica interattiva che sintetizza in 15 punti la catastrofe economica — finanziaria dell’Italia:
- Morgan Stanley estimates net issuance should total 35 billion euros per year in 2012–2013, less than expect annual coupon payments of around €45 billion per year
- A total of €157 billion in Italian government paper will fall due by the end of the year. Redemptions will peak in September, when €46 billion of BTP CTX bonds mature
- Italy has raised €277.4 billion euros in debt so far in 2011, or 65.3% of its full-year target, the Treasury said — suggesting further issuance of €147.4 billion, according to Reuters calculations
- Italy’s public debt stood at €1,890 billion at the end of April, according to Bank of Italy figures. The public debt figure includes postal savings
- Italian government bonds and short-term bills totaled €1,583 billion at the end of June according to Italian Treasury data. Their average term was 7.09 years
- A one percentage point increase in Italy’s debt yields adds about €3 billion euros to interest payments in the first year, and twice that in the second, the Bank of Italy has said
- Italy forecast in April that 2011 debt servicing costs would total 4.8% of GDP, or about €77 billion
- The International Monetary Fund estimated in April that 47% of Italian 2010 government debt was held abroad. Morgan Stanley last week estimated foreign holdings at 44%
- Banks domiciled in Italy held €192 billion in Italian government securities at the end of May, Bank of Italy data showed last month. In the first quarter of 2011 they also held €589 billion euros in government securities on behalf of their clients
- European Banking Authority data showed in July that Italy’s five lending retail banks had a net direct exposure to Italian sovereign debt of €159 billion. Intesa Sanpaolo is the most exposed with €57.6 billion, followed by UniCredit with €47.5 billion
- Morgan Stanley said domestic banks and insurance companies could quite easily buy net €60 billion a year in Italian government debt for the next few years
- JP Morgan analysis said Italian banks will have to refinance €53 billion of maturing bonds in wholesale markets next year
- The €600 billion Italian pension fund and insurance industry has increased its holdings of domestic government bonds by 10% in the last three years to 32% of assets, according to JP Morgan
- Analysts estimate that an increase in the average cost of Italian public debt drives a similar rise in the cost of banks’ bond issues
- JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley analysts estimate Italian banks’ holdings of government bonds at around 6% of their assets — a higher figure than 5% for Spanish banks and second only within the euro zone to Greek banks’ 10%
Interessante anche l’analisi di Reuters che suggerisce come i problemi del nostro paese siano più legati alla mancata crescita che al controllo del debito, elemento sul quale si è sempre invece concentrato l’attuale Ministro dell’Economia.
Tanto dettagliato quanto non convenzionale, e dunque ancora più interessante, il rapporto su quanto avviene oltreoceano.
Diceva John Kenneth Galbraith che «la sola funzione delle previsioni in campo economico è quella di rendere persino l’astrologia un po’ più rispettabile», affermazione che alla luce dei fatti appare tanto pungente quanto azzeccata.